Ready to take office by economist

Turkey's Abdullah Gul will soon become president. Then what?

ABDULLAH GUL, Turkey's foreign minister, took another step towards the presidency on Monday August 20th as parliamentarians held a first round of voting for the post. Mr Gul, a pious Muslim whose earlier bid for the job sparked political turmoil, won 341 votes in the 550-member chamber. He fell short of the two-thirds of ballots needed to win the presidency outright in the first round, though he is all but assured of eventual victory. His closest rival, Sabahattin Cakmakoglu, a former defence minister fielded by the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), got just 70 votes.
Mr Gul is expected to become president after a third round of voting on August 28th, when a simple majority will suffice. He is backed by his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party, which won 341 seats in snap parliamentary polls last month. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) boycotted Monday's session and claimed that Mr Gul's earlier involvement in Islamist politics posed a threat to the secular system laid down by the founder of modern Turkey, Kemal Ataturk.

The job of president is partly ceremonial, but the incumbent has influence over politics through his right to block legislation. He may also name judges and veto appointments to the government and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Mr Gul’s first go at the presidency in April was greeted with mass anti-government rallies called by secularists, including many women who voiced concern that their liberal lifestyles might be threatened. Tensions escalated when the army, which has toppled four governments since 1960, threatened to intervene. His effort came to an end when the constitutional court upheld a claim by the CHP that the parliament lacked a quorum in a first round of balloting. The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then called an early general election.
In the event, the AK Party romped back for a second term with nearly 47% of the vote. Four years of robust economic growth, political calm and democratic reforms have kept the public happy. Voters may also have been offering a mandate for Mr Gul’s attempt on the presidency. Fearful of a fresh dust-up with the army, Mr Erdogan at first balked at his colleague's continued presidential ambitions. But Mr Gul persisted and won the backing of the AK's conservative rump led by Bulent Arinc, a former speaker of parliament, forcing Mr Erdogan’s hand. As important, the MHP announced after the elections that its parliamentarians would take part in the vote for president, ensuring there would be a quorum.
Mr Gul says that, as president, he will reach out to all Turks and that he will remain loyal to the secular tenets of the constitution. His four years as foreign minister leave little room for doubt. He was the driving force behind the many reforms that persuaded European Union leaders to open long delayed membership talks with Turkey in 2005. And it was Mr Gul who engineered the defection of fellow moderates from the overtly Islamist Welfare Party which was bullied out of office by the generals in 1997.
His sole handicap appears to be his wife, Hayrunnisa. She wears the Islamic style headscarf that is banned in all government buildings and schools. In a sop to the secularists she is expected to tie it in a more fashionable style. Over time they should grow accustomed to her headgear just as they eventually accepted Mr Erdogan's wife, Emine, who became the first ever prime ministerial spouse to cover her head.
As for relations with the army, there remains scope for more tensions with the ruling politicians. Mr Erdogan is promising to write a new “civilian” constitution to replace the one that was imposed by the generals after their last direct coup in 1980. But Mr Gul is, for now, playing down the prospects of confrontation. It is rumoured that he has already met the chief of general staff, Yasar Buyukanit, in recent days to offer personal assurances that he will not stray from Ataturk’s path, although Mr Buyukanit denies any meeting has taken place. It would seem to be in nobody’s interest to spark fresh political upheaval once again.
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